Project overview:

Phase II: Ensuring Long-Term Availability and Bankability of Offshore Wind Through Hurricane Risk Assessment and Mitigation

Awardee:

Northeastern University

Start Date:

Q2, 2024

Technical Challenge Area:

Wind Resource and Site Characterization

Completion Date:

N/A (Currently Underway)

Synopsis:

The second phase of this project will continue to develop an improved hurricane prediction model with broad industry applications, including developers, researchers, financial, and risk firms. Addressing a current gap in accurate hurricane analysis and modeling, this endeavor is critical for ensuring the safety and efficiency of OSW operations.

Target Outcomes:

Statistically assess the characteristics and recurrence of hurricanes, relevant to U.S. states located along the US Mid/North Atlantic coast, including effects of a changing climate.

Validate the wind field characteristics of hurricanes simulated during the first phase of this project and create engineering models representing wind fields with hurricane-specific characteristics.

Produce probabilistic models and corresponding maps showing the relative importance of hurricanes compared to non-hurricanes in influencing the wind and wave environmental conditions for the US Mid/North Atlantic coast.

Use findings from the first phase of the project to reassess and quantify the impact of loss-of-load risk for PJM, including a sensitivity analysis considering future scenarios of generation mixes and demands and continued development of mitigation strategies.

Generate recommendations for industry best practices on designing, certifying and assessing risk for wind farms installed in regions exposed to hurricanes.